Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Bay Area Blitz Golden State Warriors season preview

The Golden State Warriors begin the 2007-2008 season with sizable expectations after their magical run – highlighted by their “We Believe” motto – at the end of the regular season and playoffs last year.

They ended their 12-year playoff drought by winning nine of the final 10 games of the regular season, then accomplished the biggest playoff upset in NBA history by beating Dallas, who won 67 games, in six games.

But that was last season. Will that emotional run carry over to this year?

So far the answer is an emphatic no. With Stephen Jackson suspended for the first seven games because of his off-the-court legal issues, the Warriors are off to a bad start (0-4 as of November 7).

Before the season began, head coach Don Nelson anointed Baron Davis, Jackson and Matt Barnes as tri-captains.

That raised some eyebrows because of Jackson’s troubled past. But Nellie knows that Jackson is one of the leaders and best players on his roster. If that was in doubt, it shouldn’t be anymore after how bad the Warriors have looked without him.

Jackson is perhaps the best individual defender on the team. Nelson said last year that Jackson executes a game plan better than any player he’s ever had. That’s a big statement considering Nellie has coached players such as Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash.

The biggest move during the off-season was on draft day when they traded fan favorite Jason Richardson to the Bobcats for No.8 pick Brandan Wright.

It was speculated that the trade was the first step in a plan to acquire Kevin Garnett, but KG ended up on the Celtics.

The rest of the off-season moves included the draft picks of Marco Belinelli and Stephane Lasme, re-signing Barnes and Mickael Pietrus, and the free-agent signings of Austin Croshere and Troy Hudson. They also signed last year’s second-rounder, Kosta Perovic.

Adonal Foyle and Sarunas Jasikevicius were waived.

Perhaps most important of all, Nelson re-signed for another season.

One can argue that the Warriors are undoubtedly worse than last season, losing one of their top three players for a guy who has never played an NBA game.

Perhaps the trade will benefit the team long term, but with Baron Davis in his prime, by the time Wright develops, it will be too late for Baron. So the Warriors have clearly taken a step backwards from last season, one could argue.

On the other hand, you can argue that the Warriors filled a need and traded a position in which they are deep and talented and can easily replace.

I tend to lean towards this line of thinking. As much as I loved J-Rich, I think the Warriors can replace him for the most part with Belinelli, Monta Ellis and Kelenna Azubuike, who has won the starting job and is proving that he’s a legit NBA shooting guard.

Baron Davis is leaner and in better shape than he was last year. It all starts with him. If he misses significant time due to injury, forget it. The Warriors will be back in the lottery. If he’s healthy and playing well, so will the Warriors.

Foyle is gone. Andris Biedrins and Ellis are a year older and (hopefully) better. Unlike last year, Jackson and Al Harrington went through training camp with this team.

Because of these things, you can make the case that the Warriors should be better.

Only time will tell. I can see both sides of the argument.

The Warriors lost to Utah in the playoffs because they got killed on the boards. They haven’t solved that problem, and their first four games are proof. In those games, the Warriors have been out-rebounded 56-37, 53-36, 38-30 and 47-43.

Biedrins was 11th in the league in rebounding last season with a 9.3 average. But he did that in only 29 minutes per game because of foul trouble. No other player in the top 14 in rebounding averaged less than 31 minutes per game.

That means that the Warriors’ center must do a better job of staying out of foul trouble. If he does, the Warriors become a better rebounding team. But make no mistake – rebounding will still be their weakness.

At the end of last season, the Warriors negated their lack of size by getting turnovers and fast break points. They haven’t been able to do that so far this season. Getting Jackson back should help.

They may be off to a poor start, but it’s early. They have too many talented players to have a bad team. The fact that Nellie is in charge keeps me from panicking.

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