Stars shining bright in San Jose

Stu Barnes saves the day as he blocks Torrey Mitchell's shot from going into the net

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Joe Thornton is roughed up in front of Stars' goaltender Marty Turco

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Sports)

Jay Donde / Bay Area Blitz 

For much of their game against the Dallas Stars last night, the San Jose Sharks answered their critics; they played like the more desperate team. Unfortunately, it wasn't the desperation of feel-good, David vs. Goliath sports films; it was the desperation of a team being out-passed, out-skated and out-played.

Up until the third period, it seemed as if the Sharks had the game in hand. With a 2-1 lead, they were poised to defeat a Stars team that had lost 18 of the 26 regular season games in which it trailed at the end of the second. What the scoreboard didn't show, however, was that the Sharks had benefited from four power plays during the first two periods, three of which came in the first 10 minutes of the game, and had only scored during one.

The Sharks' first goal came at the end of their third power play, 10:13 into the game, when defenseman Craig Rivet took a shot from the Stars' blue line into traffic and center Joe Pavelski chipped it in.

The Stars answered less than six minutes later when a shot by Brenden Morrow jumped out of Nabokov's glove and landed next Stars center Mike Ribeiro behind the net. Nabokov stretched to block the net, but Ribeiro's lucky puck hit Nabokov's skate and, incredibly, was deflected backwards to put the Stars on the board.

"[We had trouble] against the Ribeiro line," said Sharks coach Ron Wilson after the game. "They were dangerous just about every shift."

The Sharks didn't get another opportunity to score until 6:08 into the second period when centers Torrey Mitchell and Jeremy Roenick broke off on a two-on-one against Stars defenseman Trevor Daley, but Roenick's shot flew wide of the net. Ten minutes later, Sharks defenseman Brian Campbell – acquired in February from Buffalo in exchange for Steve Bernier and a first-round draft pick – passed the puck up from center ice to left wing Milan Michalek. Michalek slid past Daley, outmaneuvered Stars' goalie Marty Turco and scored.

Things almost immediately went sour for the Sharks as the third period began, however. Pavelski took the puck to the Sharks blue line less than half a minute into the period, then caught an edge and fell right in front of Stars center Brad Richards, whose shot flew past Nabokov's right shoulder into the net.

"We didn't lose the game on that play," Pavelski said later on in the locker room. "It was still a 2-2 hockey game."

But from that point on the momentum was entirely with the Stars. On a Stars power play 4:39 into the third period, Stars defenseman Sergei Zubov – a game-time decision who's missed 33 games since undergoing foot surgery in January – performed an unbelievable pirouette on the left side of the Sharks' net and blind-passed the puck to center Mike Modano who put it in for the goal.
 

"[Zubov's] got three months of rest, not three months of rust," said Stars coach Dave Tippet of the play that put his team ahead. "How many guys can make a pass like that? That's shinny hockey at its finest."

With a little over six minutes left in regulation, Stars center Brad Richards swung around the back of the Sharks' net with the puck and passed it to left wing Niklas Hagman, who scored and brought the Sharks up 4-2. Five minutes late Hagman scored again on a Sharks empty net to put the game out of reach.

"We have to play better third periods," Nabokov said after the game. "Key saves – that's the biggest thing."

The Sharks head to Dallas, where they've consistently played well, this Friday for Games 3 and 4.

Said Sharks captain Patrick Marleau after the game, "We'll try to limit our mistakes. Having past success [in Dallas], it helps going in."

Gallery 1 (Sharks v. Stars Game 1)

San Jose Sharks Douglass Murray collides with Dallas Stars Jere Lehtinen 

during the first period in Game of their Western conference semifinal hockey game in San Jose.

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

San Jose Sharks' Mike Grier collides with Dallas Stars defenseman 

Trevor Daley during the first period of Game 1 (Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

The Sharks' bench along with head coach Ron Wilson watch as their teammates battle for the puck in the first period.

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Sharks' goalie Evgeni Nabokov makes a save on Dallas Stars Steve Ott 

during the first period in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinal hockey game in San Jose.

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Sharks' center Joe Thornton drives Dallas Stars' defenseman Trevor Daley into the boards in the first period.

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Stars shine in San Jose

Sharks' forward Jonathan Cheechoo crashes the net for the tying goal in the 3rd period.

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

The Dallas Stars gather around their captain after their overtime goal in Game 1

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Sports

Julio Lara / Bay Area Blitz

There would be no actual punches thrown this time around as the San Jose Sharks and the Dallas Stars met up for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals in San Jose. The Stars did land the first crushing blow of the series with a 3-2 victory last night.

Brendan Marrow’s shot from the right circle four minutes into overtime gave them the first win of the best-of-seven series.
The goal was the second of the night for Morrow, the fifth of his playoffs.

Unfortunately for the Sharks, the game followed a trend set from their first round match-up with Calgary – while San Jose did outshoot the Stars 27-15 in regulation, Dallas went the route of quality over quantity. It was their scoring with so little opportunities that frustrated San Jose head coach Ron Wilson.

“They must have had five good scoring chances,” Wilson said. “From a defensive point of view, I thought we played pretty good.”
Of that there is no denying.

The Sharks came out strong defensively, allowing only two first period shots. They also came as the aggressors, bringing the physical battle to a supposed more physical team.

But Stars goaltender Marty Turco proved to a ball Friday night. While the stat sheet will show that he stopped 25 pucks, the real story is that Turco shut down the Sharks, making some acrobatic saves throughout the night.
There was no mystery to what the Sharks needed to do – when they were able to cause traffic jam in from of Turco’s net, they were successful.

Hence, the first goal of the game – after turning the puck over in their offensively zone, Joe Thorton made a pretty play, gliding in on net and holding on to the puck to the last possible second and found Milan Michalek who shot crawled underneath Turco’s pads and across the line at 4:50 of the second period. The goal was the first of the playoffs for Michalek who was San Jose’s second leading scorer in the regular season, but failed to put up a point in the previous series.

But the Stars responded almost immediately. A hooking penalty later gave the Stars a powerplay and they didn’t waste any time taking advantage. Mike Modano’s shot from the blue line had eyes and found its way to the back of the San Jose net to tie the game at one a piece.

Riding the momentum of the game-tying goal the Stars completely silenced the crowd three minutes later when Morrow struck for his first goal.

Mike Ribiero got the primary assist, this after his wrap-around attempt ricocheted off of Evgeni Nabokov’s left pad right to
Marrow who beat his defenseman to the net and cleaned up for the easy goal.

“We lost the battles,” Wilson said. “When you turn [the puck] over against a great line … it’s going to end up in your net.”

The Sharks seemed flat at times. Wilson labeled it as a form of “resisting” to make a play. As time ticked away, San Jose and their patented crowd appeared to awaken.

The traffic in front of Turco’s net was the key in Jonathan’s Cheechoo’s equalizer who a little over three minutes left in the game.

Tory Mitchell’s shot from the point caused a loose puck that Cheechoo muscled from just inside the crease. The goal wasn’t pretty, but it got the job done.

“For us, it’s a matter of executing,” Cheechoo said. “We have to get more bodies in front of Turco. He’s a good goalie. We can’t allow him to see those shots.”

A late penalty forced the Sharks to play conservatively in the game’s waning minutes instead of using the momentum from the late goal to try and win it.

And in overtime Dallas turned the tables – outshooting the host 3-0. Morrow’s shot from the right circle beat Nabokov to his lower left.

“We have to put it behind us,” Cheechoo said, “and come out ready to play on Sunday.”

Steve's Prediction: First Round Exit

by Steve Kennedy / Bay Area Blitz

The Sharks so very often take a lead in a game during a playoff series, blow that lead, then blow the series as a whole. This is exactly what Sharks’ fans should expect if the Sharks continue their disturbing playoff trend.

Sharks fans seem to be less and less excited for the playoffs as the years go by, and no one can blame them. For some reason their team seems to be content with having a great regular season, and making unremarkable playoff exits.

Last night the Sharks came out of the gate with one of the best starts they've had in their playoff history, scoring three goals in the first 3 1/2 minutes, and chasing Mikka Kipprusoff from the net. Kipprusoff left the ice in a fit of rage, smashing the glass with his stick and throwing it down the hallway that leads to the locker room. You can’t blame the guy. After all, giving up three goals in that short span of time of a playoff game is inexcusable.

However, the Sharks, felt that this lead was enough, started to coast through the game. Their captain was run over multiple times, bloodied and battered and yet they showed no emotion, no fire, and no heart. They allowed the Calgary Flames to walk all over them without any fear of retribution.

Here is a lesson: A three goal lead is not enough to sit back on when you have 55 minutes left, and you are getting repeatedly run over, beaten and bruised in a playoff game. You can’t do that against a playoff game that has a history of knocking you out from the playoffs. Last night’s game was a playoff game that will more than likely decide whether or not the Sharks will make a first round exit.

This is starting to become a disturbing trend in the recent world of Sharks hockey. They manage to show great talent, poise, and determination during the regular season, only to drop off unexpectedly during the playoffs.

In the 03-04 season, the Sharks were tied two games a piece with Calgary in the Western Conference finals, only to completely sputter out in the final two games, only managing one goal. In the 05-06 season, they were up 2 games to the Edmonton Oilers in the second round, only to lose four in a row. The Oilers basically pushed the Sharks around and had their way with them, even shutting them out in the final game of that series. Last season, the Sharks had a 2-1 series lead versus Detroit in the second round, only to lose three in a row and again scored only one goal the final two games.

Evgeni Nabokov said it best himself when he said that the Sharks were playing like boys and the Flames were playing like men. If the Sharks don't start playing like men, we're going to see a first round exit. And if history repeats itself, it will be another completely lackluster exit leaving an even more disappointed Sharks fan base.

Sharks fans will have the opportunity to see if the men or the boys come to play tomorrow night. If it's the latter, at least they have another Pacific Division banner to show for their efforts this season. But there’s no point being the Pride of the Pacific when you can’t even put up a remarkable playoff run.

PHOTO GALLERY 2 (Game 2 vs. Flames)

Recently acquired defenseman Brian Campbell falls to the ice to stop a shot.
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Flames' netminder Mikka Kipprusoff gloves down a high shot in the third period
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Sharks' mascot, SJ Sharkie, brings out the "Sharks Win" flag
after his team defeated the Flames 2-0 last Thursday
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

PHOTO GALLERY 1 (Game 2 vs. Flames)

Sharks' defenseman loses his footing in the third period.
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Eric Nystrom shoots the puck on net in the first period.
(John Remus III)

Sharks' netminder Evegeni Nabokov makes a save in the third period.
Nabokov finished with a shutout, stopping all 21 shots he faced in the Sharks 2-0 victory last Thursday.
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Flames' Eric Nystrom collides with Evgeni Nabokov in the third period.
(John Remus III)

Sharks' forward Jonathan Cheechoo skates the puck out of his zone in the third period.
(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Sharks even series behind Nabokov's shutout

San Jose Sharks' center Torrey Mitchell (right) throws his arms up in celebration

after scoring the second goal of the night in a 2-0 victory over the Calgary Flames.

(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

Sharks' defenseman Kyle McLaren fights for puck possession against

Flames' center Matthew Lombardi in the second period of Game 2.

(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

The Sharks powerplay unit celebrates as Mitchell's goal gave them

a 2-0 lead midway in the second period.

(John Remus III / Bay Area Blitz)

by Audren Zarrabi / Bay Area Blitz

The Stanley Cup playoffs are sports’ most grueling postseason. What made this postseason series unusual is that it featured back-to-back night games. During the regular season the Sharks posted a record of 11-4, and the Flames a 9-3 record on the second night of back to backs respectively. Thursday night’s game turned into a test for the hometown Sharks who were looking to even the series with the Calgary Flames at one game a piece.

One night after quieting a ruckus crowd at HP Pavilion in San Jose with a 3-2 victory, the Flames came into Thursday’s game looking to make another statement. Already stealing home ice advantage away from the Sharks, the Flames looked to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best of seven series with the Sharks and head back home to Alberta, Canada with their heads held high.

The games first period featured stellar defensive plays from both teams, particularly Sharks’ goaltender Evgeni Nabokov. During one sequence, the Flames carried possession of the puck into the Sharks defensive zone, Flames defenseman Cory Sarich pinched down from the blue line and charged the net. A nifty pass from defenseman David Moss saw Sarich with a wide open net to the glove hand side of Nabokov, however Nabokov slid over to his left and denied Sarich the goal.

“It’s actually fun to watch both of these goalies work against each other,” said Sharks’ head coach Ron Wilson. “I’m sure Warren Strelow is upstairs watching with a big smile on his face at this kind of exhibition in goaltending.”

Strelow was a long time goaltender coach in the league who passed away last spring. Both Nabokov and Kiprusoff were under Strelow’s tutelage in San Jose.

Both teams went scoreless in the first period, with the Flames posting 10 shots on goal to the Sharks’ 8.

With the start of the second period, it was evident that both teams wanted to step up the physicality of the game. Flames defenseman Dion Phaneuf looked to push around his weight, especially when the Sharks’ sure handed center Joe Thornton was on the Ice. Equally, the Sharks’ defensive tank Douglas Murray, who also is known for his big hits, was matched up with the Flames’ superstar captain Jarome Iginla.

The Sharks managed to get the puck into the net after 4:56 into the second period. Sharks blue liner Marc-Edouard Vlasic slapped a shot from the point that ricocheted off the end boards and in front of the net. Joe Pavelski of the Sharks was able to shoot the puck past Flames goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff, scoring his first goal of the postseason and putting his team up 1-0 in the game. The assists went to Vlasic and Sharks’ captain Patrick Marleau.

The second period saw the Flames take seven minor penalties. With two men already in the box, Calgary defenseman Jim Vandermeer was called for slashing Thornton. With a full two-man advantage, the Flames’ penalty killers, and Kiprusoff dug down deep and killed off the first part of the two man advantage, proving the old hockey adage that your best penalty killer is your goalie.

Finally the Sharks were able to add an insurance marker and make the score 2-0 with nearly two minutes left in the second period during the final seconds of Vandermeer’s penalty. The Sharks finally capitalized on their power play chances, and saw rookie forward Torrey Mitchell score his first playoff goal, assisted by forward Milan Michalek and defenseman Craig Rivet.

During the second period, the Sharks outshot the Flames 27 to 3, setting a franchise record for most shots in a single postseason period.

“I thought we were pushing the pace and forcing them into taking some penalties,” said Wilson. “It took a little while to wear down Kipper but we eventually got to him.”

The highlight of the night came from Nabokov, as once again he made a glove save that trounced the one he made in the first period. Not only did this save appear more outstanding, but it came against Flames rugged winger and former Sharks’ captain Owen Nolan. After receiving a pass of the right slot, Nolan had the entire left side of net open to bury the puck, but once again Nabokov’s glove was in the right position to make the save.

Nabokov’s save of the game came with 4:51 left to play in the third period. Had that shot gone in, the Flames would have had plenty of the time to get the potential tying goal and be a greater thorn in the side of the Sharks.

Wilson didn’t forget to sing the praised of his own goaltender.

“We know how good Nabby is and I think he’s deserving of the Vezina trophy,” said Wilson. “He’s been the best goalie this year, and I think a night like tonight shows why we think so highly of him.”

The Flames continued getting called for penalties, being cited for four more infractions in the third period and had a total of 12 penalties for the game.

During the postgame interview, Calgary head coach Mike Keenan was asked about the number of penalties called against his club.

“I’ll share those thoughts with the league, and with the supervisor of officials,” Keenan said. After the second period had expired, Keenan stayed behind the bench and was seen jawing with officials about the number of penalties called against his team.

Although the Sharks failed to score with the man advantage in the third period, their effort to draw the last penalty won them the game.

With 17:29 gone by in the third period, Sarich cross-checked Sharks forward Ryane Clowe. Sarich’s penalty negated any possibility of the Flames making a two goal come back because the Flames would’ve had only 31 seconds to score two goals once Sarichs’ penalty had expired.
The Sharks were contempt effectively playing keep away with the puck on their final man advantage, eating away the clock, securing their victory, and sending the series to Calgary for games three and four tied at one game a piece.

PHOTO GALLERY 2 (Game 1 vs. Calgary Flames)

Evgeni Nabokov stops Alex Tanguay in the second period. Nabokov allowed 3 goals on 23 attempted shots
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Former Sharks' captain Owen Nolan tries to evade Joe Thornton's poke check in the third period.
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Owen Nolan steamrolls Sharks' center Joe Pavelski in the third period.
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

The Flames swarm Kipprusoff at the end of regulation.
He stopped 37 shots in last night's 3-2 Flames' victory.
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

PHOTO GALLERY 1 (Game 1 vs. Calgary Flames)

Dion Phaneuf gives the Calgary Flames the early 1-0 lead in the first period
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Miikka Kiprusoff denies Sharks' center Joe Pavelski wraparound attempt.
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Ryan Clowe attempts to jab at a loose puck.
Clowe ended up with both of the Sharks' goal in last nights 3-2 loss.
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Kipprusoff lets Clowe know not to venture in his crease in the second period
(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

Patrick Rissmiller and Stephane Yelle collide in the second period.
Yelle had 2 goals for Calgary

(Steven Cabana / Bay Area Blitz)

State of the Oakland Athletics union

by James Newburg / Bay Area Blitz correspondent

In case you stopped paying attention at last season’s All-Star Break, here is the state of the Oakland Athletics union:

The A’s finished 76-86 last year – their first losing season since 1998 – after suffering injuries to nearly every key player on the roster. In the offseason, they traded their two biggest stars and made a guy who wasn’t good enough to stick with the Kansas City Royals their biggest free-agent signing. This season also puts the A’s another year closer to moving to a city that’s basically an parking lot with a mayor.

In short, things could be better.

But the A’s outlook for 2008 might not be as bad as you think. The answers to the following five questions will determine if Oakland slips into the American League playoffs or slides toward the West Division cellar:

1. Whither Eric Chavez?

San Francisco Chronicle beat writer Susan Slusser’s Sunday report from the A’s opening trip to Japan doesn’t bode well for Chavez. The team has told the third baseman to rest until he is pain-free. Furthermore, Oakland trainer Steve Sayles said that Chavez will have to start his rehab ‘completely over’ after he finishes resting. Though the Chronicle article gave no specific timeframe, it noted that Chavez had the same surgical procedure that Mark Kotsay had last year.

Kotsay played only 56 games and hit .214/.279/.296 in 2007.

Given Chavez’s injury troubles and performance decline over the past three seasons, the A’s can no longer rely upon him to be a difference-maker for their team. However, Oakland has a useful option in Jack Hannahan, who can match Chavez’s batting performance last year (.240/.306/.446). Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory’s ZiPS system projects Hannahan to hit .258/.362/.375 this year.

While Chavez may not be healthy enough to play the field, the A’s can pencil him in at designated hitter. According to the Chronicle article, Chavez’s latest episode of back stiffness came after fielding practice last week, but he “has felt fine hitting and running.” As a DH, Chavez would be a good bet to match his recent performance, and a decent bet to improve his numbers if his back is spared the rigors of third base. Jack Cust can move from DH to left field (see #5).

If Hannahan and Chavez can at least repeat last year’s performances as the regular third baseman and designated hitter, that would represent a marginal improvement for the A’s over last year.

2. Will Jack Cust challenge the single-season strikeout record?

Cust’s emergence from the Triple-A scrap heap was one of the few silver linings in an otherwise dismal season. The 28-year-old slugger hit .256/.408/.504, finishing eleventh in the American League in home runs (26) and second in walks (105, six behind a guy named David Ortiz). He led the Green and Gold in both categories despite playing only 124 games.

The flipside was that, in those 124 games, Cust managed to strike out a league-leading 164 times. On a rate basis, Cust struck out once every 3.09 plate appearances, which led the major leagues. For comparison, Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard struck out once every 3.26 plate appearances on his way to setting the single-season record with 199 whiffs. If Cust made as many trips to the plate as Howard did last year, he would have finished with 210. During home games, the city of Oakland can use Cust’s at-bats as an alternative source of wind power.

(To Cust’s benefit, the past decade of baseball has seen the hitter’s strikeout destigmatized. Out of the 144 seasons a hitter has finished with at least 150 strikeouts, 67 of them have come since 1998, including Howard’s 2006 MVP season and Sammy Sosa’s 1998.)

If anything, A’s fans should root for Cust to whiff his way into the history books in the 2008 campaign. It will mean that he was healthy and productive enough to stay in the lineup for the entire season, hitting 30-35 home runs and drawing at least 120 walks to go with those 200 strikeouts. That’s the flipside to the flipside.

But having too many games like his four-K opener will earn Cust a one-way ticket to beautiful, historic Sacramento. I suppose that’s the flipside to the flipside to the flipside.

3. Are Blanton/Harden/Gaudin the Big Enough Three?

In a word, no.

There are too many injury concerns between Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin, and no one would confuse those two with the 2002 Mark Mulder and Barry Zito as workhorses when healthy. Now, in a two-way race with the LAAnaheim Angels, who have their one-two punch of John Lackey (out until May) and Kelvim Escobar (facing career-threatening shoulder surgery) sidelined, can the trio of Joe Blanton, Harden, Gaudin and a cast of thousands pitch well enough to hold their own?

That is a more interesting question and one without a clear answer. The Angels’ injuries give the A’s some opening, but Oakland’s rotation is full of potential trouble spots of its own. It’s tempting to take the pessimistic view: that Blanton is a workhorse but miscast as an ace starter, Harden might be good for 15 starts, Gaudin had the league catch up to him in the second half last year and starts the season on the disabled list, Dana Eveland has a blazing fastball matched only by his weight and command issues, and Justin Duchscherer hasn’t started a major-league game since 2003. The backup options are adequate, but don’t inspire any confidence: Lenny DiNardo and Dallas Braden.

However, the collective ZiPS projection for these seven pitchers* gives them a 4.31 ERA in 957 innings, which would be almost an exact repeat of last year’s 4.29 ERA in 953 innings. For further comparison, the Angels’ starting staff finished with a 4.22 ERA in 976 innings. With Lackey and Escobar set to miss about eight starts apiece, the Angels have lost a half-season of ace pitching before the opening pitch. Things could become interesting come August.

(*To figure out how Duchscherer’s relief projection would change as a starter, I used Szymborski’s methodology for converting relief projections to starting and came up with The Duke posting a 3.98 ERA in 122 innings.)

4. Is Daric Barton more like Jason Giambi or Jeremy Giambi?

Barton was robbed acquired from St. Louis with Dan Haren and Kiko Calero in the 2004 trade of Mark Mulder. The 22-year-old moved steadily up the Oakland minor-league ladder and won the starting job at first base after hitting .347/.429/.639 in the final 18 games of 2007.

Scouts rave about Barton’s stroke and approach at the plate. In his minor-league career, he batted .301/.412/.459 with outstanding plate discipline, walking more than he struck out. His minor-league track record is comparable to Jason Giambi (.291/.404/.470), and Giambi didn’t play a full major-league season until he was 25.

Yet, despite hitting four home runs in 72 big-league at-bats, there are concerns about Barton’s ability to hit for power. He only hit 41 home runs in 1655 at-bats, or about 12 per 500 at-bats. His slugging percentage has declined as he has moved from A to AAA. Last year, he hit .293/.389/.438. He has been plagued with injuries the since 2006 and dealt with a hand injury in Spring Training. Giambi, on the other hand, tore through AAA, hitting .331/.424/.519.

While Barton may be one of the youngest starting players in the major leagues, at this point, it would not be fair to expect him to ever come close to reaching Giambi’s heights as a hitter. If anything, he projects to be a Mark Grace-type hitter: .300 batter, good doubles power, 10-12 homers a year, won’t give away at bats, draws a good number of walks. If he stays healthy, he’s a good bet to meet or exceed this projection and be a useful player for the A’s, but not a star pushing them toward a pennant.

If he can’t avoid injuries, then a hearty hello to Dan Johnson!

5. Billy Beane, you paid more than $3 million to sign Emil Brown. Really!?!

This begs for a “Really!?! with Seth and Amy” segment from Saturday Night Live’s Weekend Update:

Here’s a guy who barely out-hit Jason Kendall last year, and you not only gave him millions of dollars, but made him your starting left fielder. Really? That’s like making Bear Stearns stock part of your retirement plan. All your other stocks may do well, but your Bear Stearns shares will leave you celebrating your 80th birthday, sitting by the glow of your black-and-white TV and enjoying a delicious can of Fancy Feast. I mean, really.

You really think he’s going to get better after turning 33 in December? I’m sorry, I must have missed the part where you traded jobs with Brian Sabean. Really. If this is what $3 million buys nowadays, I guess the dollar really isn’t worth much. Come on, you could have bought 30,000 barrels of oil with that money! At least the oil wouldn’t lose games with its baserunning, and it would still be worth something at the All-Star Break!

Seriously, though, let Cust stumble around in left field. What’s the worst that could happen? He plays like Ben Grieve? I mean, really.

And it’s not like there’s a slugging left fielder waiting for a job, some guy going by the name of Bonds. Really.

Extra Credit Question: How will the A’s do this year?

The stathead consensus is that Oakland will bounce back from a series of fluke injuries and finish around .500, eight games behind the Angels. It’s time to step out on a limb here: the Oakland Athletics will win the West Division. They won’t be a great team, but an 87-75 record can get the job done over Anaheim.

The A’s have nearly every key player under the age of 30 and no one who is a good bet for a serious decline. The youth the A’s have makes their series of injuries last year somewhat of a fluke. While Oakland does have its question marks with Harden, Chavez, and Bobby Crosby, not much is expected of them in terms of playing time or performance. Lackey and Escobar are a much different story for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero isn’t exactly the picture of health, either. This brings LAAnaheim back to the field a bit, wiping away half the gap between the two teams.

The offense looks like it can compete with the Angels. Full seasons from Travis Buck, Cust, Hannahan, and Kurt Suzuki will more than make up for the loss of Nick Swisher, and the duo of Ryan Sweeney and Chris Denorfia will improve upon the .244/.334/.379 line put up by Oakland centerfielders last year. Barton is a strong supporting player, and Donnie Murphy can add some pop in the Marco Scutaro role. This will bring the A’s a couple of games closer.

The A’s have enough youth and depth in the pitching staff to repeat last year’s average performance. The bullpen is a crapshoot, but it’s hard to imagine it being much worse than last year, even if the Opening Day performance was worrying.

Oakland can win the division, then, if one of the following three things happens:

• At least one young hitter significantly outperforms his projection.
• Harden and Duchscherer combine to pitch at least 300 innings.
• Beane mans up and sign Barry Bonds before the All-Star Break.

Thinking this team has a legitimate shot at the division might mark the audacity of hope for A’s fans, but 2008 could show that a more perfect union is possible.

And, at the very least, not seeing Jason Kendall on the field is change A’s fans can believe in.