State of the Oakland Athletics union

by James Newburg / Bay Area Blitz correspondent

In case you stopped paying attention at last season’s All-Star Break, here is the state of the Oakland Athletics union:

The A’s finished 76-86 last year – their first losing season since 1998 – after suffering injuries to nearly every key player on the roster. In the offseason, they traded their two biggest stars and made a guy who wasn’t good enough to stick with the Kansas City Royals their biggest free-agent signing. This season also puts the A’s another year closer to moving to a city that’s basically an parking lot with a mayor.

In short, things could be better.

But the A’s outlook for 2008 might not be as bad as you think. The answers to the following five questions will determine if Oakland slips into the American League playoffs or slides toward the West Division cellar:

1. Whither Eric Chavez?

San Francisco Chronicle beat writer Susan Slusser’s Sunday report from the A’s opening trip to Japan doesn’t bode well for Chavez. The team has told the third baseman to rest until he is pain-free. Furthermore, Oakland trainer Steve Sayles said that Chavez will have to start his rehab ‘completely over’ after he finishes resting. Though the Chronicle article gave no specific timeframe, it noted that Chavez had the same surgical procedure that Mark Kotsay had last year.

Kotsay played only 56 games and hit .214/.279/.296 in 2007.

Given Chavez’s injury troubles and performance decline over the past three seasons, the A’s can no longer rely upon him to be a difference-maker for their team. However, Oakland has a useful option in Jack Hannahan, who can match Chavez’s batting performance last year (.240/.306/.446). Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory’s ZiPS system projects Hannahan to hit .258/.362/.375 this year.

While Chavez may not be healthy enough to play the field, the A’s can pencil him in at designated hitter. According to the Chronicle article, Chavez’s latest episode of back stiffness came after fielding practice last week, but he “has felt fine hitting and running.” As a DH, Chavez would be a good bet to match his recent performance, and a decent bet to improve his numbers if his back is spared the rigors of third base. Jack Cust can move from DH to left field (see #5).

If Hannahan and Chavez can at least repeat last year’s performances as the regular third baseman and designated hitter, that would represent a marginal improvement for the A’s over last year.

2. Will Jack Cust challenge the single-season strikeout record?

Cust’s emergence from the Triple-A scrap heap was one of the few silver linings in an otherwise dismal season. The 28-year-old slugger hit .256/.408/.504, finishing eleventh in the American League in home runs (26) and second in walks (105, six behind a guy named David Ortiz). He led the Green and Gold in both categories despite playing only 124 games.

The flipside was that, in those 124 games, Cust managed to strike out a league-leading 164 times. On a rate basis, Cust struck out once every 3.09 plate appearances, which led the major leagues. For comparison, Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard struck out once every 3.26 plate appearances on his way to setting the single-season record with 199 whiffs. If Cust made as many trips to the plate as Howard did last year, he would have finished with 210. During home games, the city of Oakland can use Cust’s at-bats as an alternative source of wind power.

(To Cust’s benefit, the past decade of baseball has seen the hitter’s strikeout destigmatized. Out of the 144 seasons a hitter has finished with at least 150 strikeouts, 67 of them have come since 1998, including Howard’s 2006 MVP season and Sammy Sosa’s 1998.)

If anything, A’s fans should root for Cust to whiff his way into the history books in the 2008 campaign. It will mean that he was healthy and productive enough to stay in the lineup for the entire season, hitting 30-35 home runs and drawing at least 120 walks to go with those 200 strikeouts. That’s the flipside to the flipside.

But having too many games like his four-K opener will earn Cust a one-way ticket to beautiful, historic Sacramento. I suppose that’s the flipside to the flipside to the flipside.

3. Are Blanton/Harden/Gaudin the Big Enough Three?

In a word, no.

There are too many injury concerns between Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin, and no one would confuse those two with the 2002 Mark Mulder and Barry Zito as workhorses when healthy. Now, in a two-way race with the LAAnaheim Angels, who have their one-two punch of John Lackey (out until May) and Kelvim Escobar (facing career-threatening shoulder surgery) sidelined, can the trio of Joe Blanton, Harden, Gaudin and a cast of thousands pitch well enough to hold their own?

That is a more interesting question and one without a clear answer. The Angels’ injuries give the A’s some opening, but Oakland’s rotation is full of potential trouble spots of its own. It’s tempting to take the pessimistic view: that Blanton is a workhorse but miscast as an ace starter, Harden might be good for 15 starts, Gaudin had the league catch up to him in the second half last year and starts the season on the disabled list, Dana Eveland has a blazing fastball matched only by his weight and command issues, and Justin Duchscherer hasn’t started a major-league game since 2003. The backup options are adequate, but don’t inspire any confidence: Lenny DiNardo and Dallas Braden.

However, the collective ZiPS projection for these seven pitchers* gives them a 4.31 ERA in 957 innings, which would be almost an exact repeat of last year’s 4.29 ERA in 953 innings. For further comparison, the Angels’ starting staff finished with a 4.22 ERA in 976 innings. With Lackey and Escobar set to miss about eight starts apiece, the Angels have lost a half-season of ace pitching before the opening pitch. Things could become interesting come August.

(*To figure out how Duchscherer’s relief projection would change as a starter, I used Szymborski’s methodology for converting relief projections to starting and came up with The Duke posting a 3.98 ERA in 122 innings.)

4. Is Daric Barton more like Jason Giambi or Jeremy Giambi?

Barton was robbed acquired from St. Louis with Dan Haren and Kiko Calero in the 2004 trade of Mark Mulder. The 22-year-old moved steadily up the Oakland minor-league ladder and won the starting job at first base after hitting .347/.429/.639 in the final 18 games of 2007.

Scouts rave about Barton’s stroke and approach at the plate. In his minor-league career, he batted .301/.412/.459 with outstanding plate discipline, walking more than he struck out. His minor-league track record is comparable to Jason Giambi (.291/.404/.470), and Giambi didn’t play a full major-league season until he was 25.

Yet, despite hitting four home runs in 72 big-league at-bats, there are concerns about Barton’s ability to hit for power. He only hit 41 home runs in 1655 at-bats, or about 12 per 500 at-bats. His slugging percentage has declined as he has moved from A to AAA. Last year, he hit .293/.389/.438. He has been plagued with injuries the since 2006 and dealt with a hand injury in Spring Training. Giambi, on the other hand, tore through AAA, hitting .331/.424/.519.

While Barton may be one of the youngest starting players in the major leagues, at this point, it would not be fair to expect him to ever come close to reaching Giambi’s heights as a hitter. If anything, he projects to be a Mark Grace-type hitter: .300 batter, good doubles power, 10-12 homers a year, won’t give away at bats, draws a good number of walks. If he stays healthy, he’s a good bet to meet or exceed this projection and be a useful player for the A’s, but not a star pushing them toward a pennant.

If he can’t avoid injuries, then a hearty hello to Dan Johnson!

5. Billy Beane, you paid more than $3 million to sign Emil Brown. Really!?!

This begs for a “Really!?! with Seth and Amy” segment from Saturday Night Live’s Weekend Update:

Here’s a guy who barely out-hit Jason Kendall last year, and you not only gave him millions of dollars, but made him your starting left fielder. Really? That’s like making Bear Stearns stock part of your retirement plan. All your other stocks may do well, but your Bear Stearns shares will leave you celebrating your 80th birthday, sitting by the glow of your black-and-white TV and enjoying a delicious can of Fancy Feast. I mean, really.

You really think he’s going to get better after turning 33 in December? I’m sorry, I must have missed the part where you traded jobs with Brian Sabean. Really. If this is what $3 million buys nowadays, I guess the dollar really isn’t worth much. Come on, you could have bought 30,000 barrels of oil with that money! At least the oil wouldn’t lose games with its baserunning, and it would still be worth something at the All-Star Break!

Seriously, though, let Cust stumble around in left field. What’s the worst that could happen? He plays like Ben Grieve? I mean, really.

And it’s not like there’s a slugging left fielder waiting for a job, some guy going by the name of Bonds. Really.

Extra Credit Question: How will the A’s do this year?

The stathead consensus is that Oakland will bounce back from a series of fluke injuries and finish around .500, eight games behind the Angels. It’s time to step out on a limb here: the Oakland Athletics will win the West Division. They won’t be a great team, but an 87-75 record can get the job done over Anaheim.

The A’s have nearly every key player under the age of 30 and no one who is a good bet for a serious decline. The youth the A’s have makes their series of injuries last year somewhat of a fluke. While Oakland does have its question marks with Harden, Chavez, and Bobby Crosby, not much is expected of them in terms of playing time or performance. Lackey and Escobar are a much different story for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero isn’t exactly the picture of health, either. This brings LAAnaheim back to the field a bit, wiping away half the gap between the two teams.

The offense looks like it can compete with the Angels. Full seasons from Travis Buck, Cust, Hannahan, and Kurt Suzuki will more than make up for the loss of Nick Swisher, and the duo of Ryan Sweeney and Chris Denorfia will improve upon the .244/.334/.379 line put up by Oakland centerfielders last year. Barton is a strong supporting player, and Donnie Murphy can add some pop in the Marco Scutaro role. This will bring the A’s a couple of games closer.

The A’s have enough youth and depth in the pitching staff to repeat last year’s average performance. The bullpen is a crapshoot, but it’s hard to imagine it being much worse than last year, even if the Opening Day performance was worrying.

Oakland can win the division, then, if one of the following three things happens:

• At least one young hitter significantly outperforms his projection.
• Harden and Duchscherer combine to pitch at least 300 innings.
• Beane mans up and sign Barry Bonds before the All-Star Break.

Thinking this team has a legitimate shot at the division might mark the audacity of hope for A’s fans, but 2008 could show that a more perfect union is possible.

And, at the very least, not seeing Jason Kendall on the field is change A’s fans can believe in.

Fisher the Fraud

by Payam Jahromi

If you missed last night’s Warriors/Lakers game, it was an unfortunate ending to a great NBA game. With few seconds left in OT, the Warriors had the ball and Monta Ellis was called for a foul for “running over” Derek Fisher. Replays showed that Fisher clearly pulled him down, costing the Warriors a chance to tie or win the game.

No one is disputing that it was a blown call. Calls get missed all the time.

My biggest problem with it is that the refs are trained to learn the players and their reputations. Given that, and the fact that Fisher is the biggest flopper in the NBA, how does he get the benefit of the doubt on anything, let alone a game-deciding play?

Fisher is a great guy off the court, a class act. But on the court he’s a fraud. After that call he laid on the ground and "played hurt.” That’s because even he felt bad, saying after the game that it should have been a no-call.

Yeah right Fish, you were hoping for that exact call. That’s how you play the game. That’s how you’ve always played the game.

Remember in last year's playoffs when Fisher was with Utah and Baron gave him that little elbow to the head and Fish fell and played hurt for about three minutes? Well I'm beginning to think he was faking that too. (When Baron was asked what he told Fisher after that, he jokingly said "I told him stop flopping and making me look bad.”)

The NBA can put an end to this from floppers like Fisher.

They made an effort to rid the league of so many bad charging calls (a stat in which Fisher always led the league every year). The refs are calling blocking fouls when the play can go either way, and it has discouraged players from trying to take charges. Great move by the league.

If you want to discourage players like Fisher from doing what he did last night, you NEVER give him the benefit of the doubt on close calls until he stops flopping. Trust me, a few months of that and this nonsense will end.

Playoff Run

The playoffs have already begun for the Golden State Warriors – make no mistake about it.

With 12 games left, this team finds themselves in a familiar place. Last year at this time, they had to win nearly every game – nine of the final 10 to be exact – to make the playoffs. This season, they probably don’t need that same winning percentage, but the task will be equally difficult.

After the back-to-back games against the Lakers, the schedule doesn’t get easier. Of their 12 remaining games, four are against Dallas and Denver (two each), the teams they are fighting with for two of the final three playoff spots.

At the very least, they must split with each of those teams.

Warriors fans might be panicking after the team has dropped two of its last three. But they are playing at a very high level right now. If they continue to play this way, they won’t be the team on the outside looking in.

The Nuggets are also playing at a high level, while Dallas just lost Dirk Nowitzki. We’ll see how the Mavs respond to life without Dirk, but they could be the team in trouble. But they get the Clippers twice.

So who knows.

But I do know this. At the very least, these final 12 games will be very fun to watch, like the playoffs themselves. And this Warriors team has given us some epic games this season. I expect a few more.

Keep Believing.

If you have any questions or comments, you can email me at pjahromi@sbcglobal.net

Sharks clinch playoff berth

Sharks' center Curtis Brown congratulates goaltender
Evgeni Nabokov after their 4-3 win over the Wild (John Remus III)

Torrey Mitchell accidentally collides with Kurtis Foster
after trying to beat out an icing call (John Remus III)

Sharks victorious behind the efforts of Roenick and Brown
By Steven Kennedy

The San Jose Sharks again found a way to do what seemed so impossible for them in the first half of the season and that was to win in the shootout. Lead by veteran forwards Curtis Brown and Jeremy Roenick, the Sharks edged out the Minnesota Wild 4-3 and clinched a playoff berth.

Brown appeared in his first game after sitting out most of the season with a hand injury.

Last night’s victory keeps the Sharks closely behind Detroit Red Wing’s rearview mirror, who are five points ahead in the standing. The Sharks are also five points ahead of the Anaheim Ducks who edged out the Dallas Stars 2-1 last night.

Roenick had a two-point performance including the shootout goal that won the game. Roenick’s goal in regulation came on an stunning 3-on-1 play that saw captain Patrick Marleau and Brown play a quick game of catch in the slot, before Marleau slid it across the crease to Roenick for a one timer that found its way to the net. That forward line consisted of all centers.

“Both JR and Brown had great nights,” head coach Ron Wilson said. “Roenick was a plus three and Brown was a plus two. Curtis was full of energy and yapping away on the bench, he played great for us.”

The second period saw Brown and Roenick figure in on the scoring again, when Roenick hit Brown streaking down the middle of the ice. Brown let a hard backhand go that found its way past Wild goaltender Nicklas Backstrom.

“It was great to have Brownie back,” Roenick said. “He’s a quality guy and always gives it his all and it’s great to see him do well.”

“I had been out for awhile and it was great to get back into the lineup and help out the team,” Brown said.
It was not an easy win for the Sharks, however. Minnesota capitalized on two powerplay opportunities, both goals coming from their captain Marian Gaborik. His second goal of the night sent the game into overtime with only :28 seconds left.

The unnerving moment of the game came at 5:18 of the second period when Torrey Mitchell and Kurtis Foster both collided and went hard into the boards with Foster at an angle where he could not protect himself.
“I would never want to hurt anyone like that,” Mitchell said. “We both got tangled up and went into the boards. I’m hoping that he is okay.”

“You don’t ever want to see that in a game,” Wilson said, “it doesn’t matter the amount of times a play happens where someone beats out the icing call. It’s just not worth it, especially when someone gets injured like that.”
This once again brings up the question of whether or not the NHL should change the ruling on touch-up icing, switching to the format in which a whistle is automatically blown upon the occurrence of an icing call, thereby avoiding needless injuries.

Once the game was over, it was announced that Foster had a displaced fracture on his left femur. He will undergo surgery Wednesday.

The Sharks will host the Anaheim Ducks on Friday at 7:30 p.m.